Congressional Republicans and the Myth of the "Mandate"

Clinton pin from inequality.org

In 1994, after Republicans gained control in the House of Representatives for the first time in 40 years, then House Majority Leader Newt Gingrich called the night the beginning of the “Republican revolution”. When Democrats gained control of both houses of Congress and the Presidency in 2008, many news outlets, such as Forbes, ran articles claiming the victories were a clear “mandate” from voters.

What is a voter mandate? In an article for The Forum, political scientist Hans Noel discusses both the traditional and more fanciful definitions of a political mandate: “In a narrow sense, winning the election gives you a “mandate.” You are now legally empowered to exercise your authority. But after every election, pundits will declare a more complex “mandate.” They will tell you not simply who won, but what that victory means. The winners won because they promised X and voters wanted Y and were afraid of Z.”

In this sense, elections are declared “voter mandates” by the whims of the media. For example, in 2004, when George Bush won his reelection campaign for the presidency with 50.5% of the popular vote and 286 electoral votes, many media representatives called his victory a clear mandate. A USA Today headline on November 4, 2004, for example, read "Clear Mandate Will Boost Bush's Authority, Reach." When Barack Obama won his reelection in 2012 by higher margins, however, media representatives were reluctant to call his victory a mandate. Obama’s 332 electoral votes and 51.1% of the popular vote were not enough to qualify for a mandate. The NPR website, for example, ran an article on November 7, 2012 with the title “For Obama, Vindication, But Not A Mandate”.

Although Republicans have not used the words “mandate” or “revolution” to describe their victory this year, it was easy to sense the excitement. With control of both the House and the Senate, Republicans can effectively dismantle all of Obama’s legislation, including the Affordable Care Act, while introducing ultra-conservative solutions to national debt and immigration reform. But that would be a mistake—especially if Republicans want to capture the White House in 2016.

Republicans should take a few deep breaths before assuming that their congressional victories mean that the country has taken a sharp right turn in the last few years. Far from it. Despite, handing Republicans the Senate, a majority of voters agree with Democrats on several important issues including raising the minimum wage, softer immigration policy, stricter environmental protections, higher taxes for corporations and the rich, legalizing gay marriage, and improving Obamacare rather than repealing it. Republicans in Congress even have lower approval ratings than Democrats. Exit polls showed that voters were dissatisfied with the Obama administration (59%), but an equal number (60%) were dissatisfied with Republican leadership in Congress.

So what is going on? First of all, voters often vote against the incumbent president’s party during midterm elections. In fact, “There have been only three exceptions in the past 80 years: 1934, 1998 and 2002.” Democrats may have been fighting an up-hill battle against a predictable political pattern. The second explanation is that voters don’t often think beyond their own pocketbook. If the economy is bad, voters are mad.

During Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign, his strategist James Carville coined a variation of the phrase: “It’s the economy, stupid.” That mantra seems more true today than ever before. Voters are fed up with the economy—and blame Obama and the Democrats for how they have handled it. Pollster Gary Langer wrote for ABC News: “Seven long years after the economy tanked, 70 percent of voters Tuesday said it’s still in bad shape. Seventy-eight percent said they’re worried about its direction in the year ahead. Only three in 10 said their own economic situation has improved in the last two years.” The still-struggling economy was given top priority this election and the voter’s discontent was taken out on the President’s party.

So despite an obvious electoral victory, Republicans need to be careful. Their top priority should be fixing the economy. Not only boosting a sluggish economy, but also making sure that Americans feel the benefits of economic recovery. If only 30% of voters feel their economic situation has improved in the last two years, Republicans need to find a way to get money into their pockets. And this may mean focusing on a popular liberal policy—raising the minimum wage. Will Republicans decide to sacrifice conservative ideology in order to have a shot at the White House in two years? We’re about to find out.