Congressional Republicans and the Myth of the "Mandate"

Clinton pin from inequality.org

In 1994, after Republicans gained control in the House of Representatives for the first time in 40 years, then House Majority Leader Newt Gingrich called the night the beginning of the “Republican revolution”. When Democrats gained control of both houses of Congress and the Presidency in 2008, many news outlets, such as Forbes, ran articles claiming the victories were a clear “mandate” from voters.

What is a voter mandate? In an article for The Forum, political scientist Hans Noel discusses both the traditional and more fanciful definitions of a political mandate: “In a narrow sense, winning the election gives you a “mandate.” You are now legally empowered to exercise your authority. But after every election, pundits will declare a more complex “mandate.” They will tell you not simply who won, but what that victory means. The winners won because they promised X and voters wanted Y and were afraid of Z.”

In this sense, elections are declared “voter mandates” by the whims of the media. For example, in 2004, when George Bush won his reelection campaign for the presidency with 50.5% of the popular vote and 286 electoral votes, many media representatives called his victory a clear mandate. A USA Today headline on November 4, 2004, for example, read "Clear Mandate Will Boost Bush's Authority, Reach." When Barack Obama won his reelection in 2012 by higher margins, however, media representatives were reluctant to call his victory a mandate. Obama’s 332 electoral votes and 51.1% of the popular vote were not enough to qualify for a mandate. The NPR website, for example, ran an article on November 7, 2012 with the title “For Obama, Vindication, But Not A Mandate”.

Although Republicans have not used the words “mandate” or “revolution” to describe their victory this year, it was easy to sense the excitement. With control of both the House and the Senate, Republicans can effectively dismantle all of Obama’s legislation, including the Affordable Care Act, while introducing ultra-conservative solutions to national debt and immigration reform. But that would be a mistake—especially if Republicans want to capture the White House in 2016.

Republicans should take a few deep breaths before assuming that their congressional victories mean that the country has taken a sharp right turn in the last few years. Far from it. Despite, handing Republicans the Senate, a majority of voters agree with Democrats on several important issues including raising the minimum wage, softer immigration policy, stricter environmental protections, higher taxes for corporations and the rich, legalizing gay marriage, and improving Obamacare rather than repealing it. Republicans in Congress even have lower approval ratings than Democrats. Exit polls showed that voters were dissatisfied with the Obama administration (59%), but an equal number (60%) were dissatisfied with Republican leadership in Congress.

So what is going on? First of all, voters often vote against the incumbent president’s party during midterm elections. In fact, “There have been only three exceptions in the past 80 years: 1934, 1998 and 2002.” Democrats may have been fighting an up-hill battle against a predictable political pattern. The second explanation is that voters don’t often think beyond their own pocketbook. If the economy is bad, voters are mad.

During Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign, his strategist James Carville coined a variation of the phrase: “It’s the economy, stupid.” That mantra seems more true today than ever before. Voters are fed up with the economy—and blame Obama and the Democrats for how they have handled it. Pollster Gary Langer wrote for ABC News: “Seven long years after the economy tanked, 70 percent of voters Tuesday said it’s still in bad shape. Seventy-eight percent said they’re worried about its direction in the year ahead. Only three in 10 said their own economic situation has improved in the last two years.” The still-struggling economy was given top priority this election and the voter’s discontent was taken out on the President’s party.

So despite an obvious electoral victory, Republicans need to be careful. Their top priority should be fixing the economy. Not only boosting a sluggish economy, but also making sure that Americans feel the benefits of economic recovery. If only 30% of voters feel their economic situation has improved in the last two years, Republicans need to find a way to get money into their pockets. And this may mean focusing on a popular liberal policy—raising the minimum wage. Will Republicans decide to sacrifice conservative ideology in order to have a shot at the White House in two years? We’re about to find out.

Congressional Approval and Midterm Elections

As an astute reader, you may have noticed there hasn’t been a lot of news about Congress recently. One reason: Congressional recess. Not only did Congress take the traditional five-week summer recess, but after an extremely brief 8-day session at the beginning of October, Congress recessed again. This was unusual because the fall session was already cut short so members of Congress could prepare for the midterm election tomorrow—November 4^th. 

House leadership wanted to allow members of Congress more time to campaign, but some representatives have argued that John Boehner may be recessing early to avoid making any difficult policy votes on issues such as immigration reform or health care—until after election time.

Twitter screenshot originally from The Wire.

Approval for Congress has always been low. In the past five years, approval for Congress has always hovered below 40%. In general, the trend of disapproval seems to be continuing downward as the polling numbers sink lower and lower. The percentage of Americans who approve of Congress is currently sitting at 14%, an embarrassing figure.

Original graph and data at Real Clear Politics.

This disapproval, however, was usually not shown towards the voter’s own congressmen and women. Individual representatives were spared the wrath against Congress because voters judged the institution and its members by different standards. While Congress as a whole was expected to fix the nation’s problems quickly and cleanly, individual representatives were judged by their service to their state or district. So even when the average American disapproved of Congress as a whole, they still believed their own member of Congress deserved reelection.

Not anymore. 

It seems that Americans have finally turned on their own representatives. In a Washington Post/ABC News poll out August 3, the numbers reveal that 51% of Americans disapprove of the way their representatives are handling their job. For the first time, a majority of Americans revealed that they were no longer satisfied with their members of Congress.

Data from Washington Post/ABC News poll.

This poll is important for a few reasons:

1. This fall is a midterm election year. That means that every Representative and a third of our Senators are up for reelection. There are a lot of vulnerable members of Congress as Republicans attempt to take control of the Senate while maintaining their advantage in the House.
2. In 2012, data showed that 90% of House members and 91% of Senators seeking reelection were successful. But this year, current members of Congress up for reelection shouldn’t take anything for granted.
3. This particular poll is of voters, not just Americans. This group is more likely to vote this fall. Thus, they are more likely to influence those midterm elections.

Many Americans skip midterm elections—the average is just 40%. Because there aren’t any high-profile races, like for President, Americans stay home. With fewer television commercials during midterm elections, maybe it is just easier to forget that it’s another election season already. But don’t forget to vote! With fewer voters coming out, your vote will have more of an impact. You have the power to change up the power structure in Congress and choose representatives who will hopefully get things done. Let’s get out the vote!