Congressional Approval and Midterm Elections

As an astute reader, you may have noticed there hasn’t been a lot of news about Congress recently. One reason: Congressional recess. Not only did Congress take the traditional five-week summer recess, but after an extremely brief 8-day session at the beginning of October, Congress recessed again. This was unusual because the fall session was already cut short so members of Congress could prepare for the midterm election tomorrow—November 4^th. 

House leadership wanted to allow members of Congress more time to campaign, but some representatives have argued that John Boehner may be recessing early to avoid making any difficult policy votes on issues such as immigration reform or health care—until after election time.

Twitter screenshot originally from The Wire.

Approval for Congress has always been low. In the past five years, approval for Congress has always hovered below 40%. In general, the trend of disapproval seems to be continuing downward as the polling numbers sink lower and lower. The percentage of Americans who approve of Congress is currently sitting at 14%, an embarrassing figure.

Original graph and data at Real Clear Politics.

This disapproval, however, was usually not shown towards the voter’s own congressmen and women. Individual representatives were spared the wrath against Congress because voters judged the institution and its members by different standards. While Congress as a whole was expected to fix the nation’s problems quickly and cleanly, individual representatives were judged by their service to their state or district. So even when the average American disapproved of Congress as a whole, they still believed their own member of Congress deserved reelection.

Not anymore. 

It seems that Americans have finally turned on their own representatives. In a Washington Post/ABC News poll out August 3, the numbers reveal that 51% of Americans disapprove of the way their representatives are handling their job. For the first time, a majority of Americans revealed that they were no longer satisfied with their members of Congress.

Data from Washington Post/ABC News poll.

This poll is important for a few reasons:

1. This fall is a midterm election year. That means that every Representative and a third of our Senators are up for reelection. There are a lot of vulnerable members of Congress as Republicans attempt to take control of the Senate while maintaining their advantage in the House.
2. In 2012, data showed that 90% of House members and 91% of Senators seeking reelection were successful. But this year, current members of Congress up for reelection shouldn’t take anything for granted.
3. This particular poll is of voters, not just Americans. This group is more likely to vote this fall. Thus, they are more likely to influence those midterm elections.

Many Americans skip midterm elections—the average is just 40%. Because there aren’t any high-profile races, like for President, Americans stay home. With fewer television commercials during midterm elections, maybe it is just easier to forget that it’s another election season already. But don’t forget to vote! With fewer voters coming out, your vote will have more of an impact. You have the power to change up the power structure in Congress and choose representatives who will hopefully get things done. Let’s get out the vote!